Development of Global Trade by 2030
Global trade in 2021 is more uncertain than ever before. Two reasons stand out for this: The first is the destructive effect of Covid-19, and the second is the rise of commercial protectionism. In addition to these, many variables can be counted in the 9-year period until 2030. The vast majority of economists agree that Covid-19 will affect cross-border trade for the remainder of this decade.
It is quite clear that the period of slow settlement for international trade is coming to an end. Instant payments are already emerging, "with the growing number of countries offering solutions," according to Citi. Benefits are important for organizations. From these statements, we can infer that just-in-time financing will be possible, problems with global payments will be minimized and faster, and treasures will have more control over cash management, among other advantages. It will become the common form of payment for international trade, possibly by 2030.
From Protectionist Economy to Free Trade
Leaving protectionist economic policy and transitioning to free trade can bring the global economy back to its old days. Despite criticizing the former president of America, Donald Trump's trade war with China, Biden has not stated that he will take a step towards ending the war on this issue. Therefore, all eyes will be focused on how Biden will manage its economic policy with China.
On the other hand, as the relations between the European Union and the UK are mutually suspicious, this is bad for trade between the UK and its 27-member strong free trade association.
As a result of the long-term impact of the Covid19 epidemic on world markets, there may be stagnation in the global economy. Developing countries have been the most affected by the pandemic. Countries may need to remove trade barriers to each other to end this worldwide recession and promote recovery.
Cold War with China
Hoping that the trade war that countries imposed hundreds of billions of dollars on each other's goods after Joe Biden took the chair, the Chinese Communist Party celebrated Biden's victory. As we said before, this is not an unpredictable result. With each passing year, the possibility of a cold war is increasing, as China takes an active role at the global level economically and politically.
Acting as an incentive for China to actively participate in the economy and financial system in the 1970s, America believed that it could have a say in China's policies and could pursue similar policies together. But the US could not take into account that China could become a global rival in the future.
The attempt to "push China away from the cold war", which was previously watched by Trump and seems to be continued by Biden, has failed. In order to prevent the relations from reaching the level of war, America must follow a very careful policy against China. As a result, China is not where America knew in the 1970s and is now at a level that can travel alone without the need for a partner.
The return of manufacturing and supply chains to their countries
One of the important issues recognized by the developed world is that countries rely on the production and supply of many basic products, especially medical supplies and protective equipment, to overseas countries. Due to the shortage and delivery difficulties experienced in this process, many countries have declared that they will follow a path in which they will not be dependent on other countries even if they do not invest excessively in this issue
The new president of America, Biden, has also pledged to lead these thoughts and ensure that America's future will be made by American workers. In addition to the negative effects of corona, with the added Brexit, the UK plans to bring its production to the UK. The EU has also discussed the motion required to bring production from underdeveloped countries into the trade blog.
Climate change and sustainability
Nowadays, the awareness created on sustainability issues is increasing due to the indifference of previous generations to global warming and climate change, which has been a threat to the world population for many years. Thanks to this awareness, sustainability has a significant impact on companies' purchasing decisions. For this reason, the ability of companies that have a voice in global trade and want to be able to meet the sustainability criteria will be more important.
The effects of sustainability will be seen in all services involved in the product development process such as material production, supply and transportation.
Global trade by 2030
The effects of the coronavirus pandemic in global trade will be clearly seen in the next ten years. Significant trade changes such as the possibility of cold war and return of supply chains to their countries of origin can be seen due to trade barriers between developing countries and countries that have a say in the world economy such as China, America, the European Union
The next few years will pass with the length and strong effects of the global recession caused by the pandemic. In addition to changes in global trade, consumers' buying habits will continue to change as they approach 2030. According to consumer behavior, the production methods of companies and the trade between countries will be affected.